The potential for the establishment of new arbovirus transmission cycles in Europe.

Mosquito-borne viruses are an increasing health threat to humans, and potentially other vertebrates, in areas where they have not previously existed or from which they had been eradicated. Chikungunya virus emergence exemplifies how multiple factors can act synergistically resulting in rapid, large-scale redistribution and establishment. Despite our increased capacity to collect and analyze large amounts of data, we still lack epidemiological models to facilitate accurate predictions of when and where new diseases may occur. Models focusing on climate changes may have long-term value; however, there is an urgent need for mathematical modeling of viral epidemiology to enable forecasting immediate or near-term threats.